1 of 2 F-15E crew rescued: Ret. USAF colonel lays out next steps

[0:00] Sources tell CNN one of two crew members have been rescued after a U.S. fighter jet was shot [0:04] down over Iran. Images of the wreckage shared by Iranian state media match that of a U.S. F-15, [0:11] including this ejection seat that appears to be damaged. Let's take a closer look now with [0:18] Colonel Cedric Layton. Colonel Layton, we didn't see the seat there, but I'm sure you have the [0:22] image here. When you see something like this, you hear that one of the crew members was rescued, [0:28] no determination yet on the other one. What scenarios come to mind? [0:32] So there are a lot of scenarios that come to mind here, Boris. But as you can see, [0:35] this, of course, is the ejection seat right here. It appears to have some damage associated with it. [0:39] This would be consistent with an explosion that would be a natural part of the actual ejection. [0:46] So basically, these have an explosive charge. These ejection seats have an explosive charge [0:50] underneath them. And that forces, that explosive charge, when activated, [0:54] forces the person that's sitting in the seat, [0:57] up out of the aircraft. And then that's when the parachutes are deployed and things like that [1:02] happen. So this is not inconsistent with a safe ejection. And it's something that is definitely [1:10] survivable from that, assuming that the impact and everything was, as we see here, where it's [1:17] everything is kind of right side up in this case. Yeah. When it was initially reported, [1:21] state media in Iran suggested that this was an F-35 stealth fighter jet. But, [1:27] upon closer inspection of some of the photos of the wreckage, [1:32] analysts have since determined that this is more likely an F-15. It's more consistent with the [1:36] makeup of an F-15. Yeah. Let's understand. Yeah, that is absolutely right. So, you know, [1:40] you basically look at the type of metal that is used in this particular case. You look at the [1:44] markings. And you look at the way in which all of this is, you know, printed in, stenciled in here, [1:52] and the type of rivets that you see. All of that is consistent with an F-15. It is definitely, [1:57] not an F-35. And that is important because an F-15 is not a stealth aircraft. The F-35 is a [2:04] stealth aircraft. And it's harder to detect, almost impossible for standard radar to detect [2:09] the F-35. F-15 can be detected by radar. Yeah. If it were an F-35, I imagine that it would [2:14] symbolize a different capacity for Iran's military, whereas this does not. I do want to get [2:21] your thoughts on the video that was geolocated by CNN showing a plane flying low over the ground [2:29] while two helicopters are nearby. It's believed to be part of the rescue operation. Walk us through [2:34] what's happening. Yeah. So, what you see here is there's a refueling aircraft here. That's a C-130, [2:40] an HC-130. And that's designed to refuel helicopters like this. These are probably [2:46] the HH-60 helicopters that are being used by the Air Force's search and [2:51] rescue capability. There's a search and rescue unit that's out of the first special operations [2:55] wing that could possibly be involved in this. And these aircraft are designed to extend the [3:02] range of the helicopters so they can go further into the area that we have here. So, when you look [3:10] at the area that you see here, this is in southwestern Iran called Khuzestan province. [3:17] This is the area where this is most likely to happen. [3:21] And it is an area where they would have had, you know, the capability to refuel even in Iranian [3:28] airspace so that that could then extend their range into other parts of Iran, if necessary. [3:34] Put this into context for us, because even if it is an F-15 and not an F-35, [3:39] there is still some symbolism to draw from this, especially because just a few nights ago, [3:44] you had the president of the United States touting the U.S. military's ability to destroy Iran's [3:49] offensive capability. [3:50] Right. [3:50] Right. [3:51] We've heard the defense secretary talking about dominion over the skies of Iran. [3:54] This contradicts that to a degree. [3:57] To a degree it does. Yeah. And so you see, when you look at all of these strikes right here, [4:03] there's a considerable amount of effort that was put into this. So there's no doubt that [4:08] basically thousands of strike sorties were flown against western Iran, southern Iran, [4:13] and of course the area around Tehran. And when you look at the concentration [4:16] right here of strikes in this area, and then you look at the types of [4:20] strikes that were done here in the western part of the country and in the central part of the [4:26] country, you can see that there are a lot of areas that have been hit. And of course, the Iranians are [4:31] doing the same thing over here in Israel as well. But having said all of that, the key thing is this, [4:37] no matter how often you strike at targets like this, there are still capabilities that are [4:42] existent within the Iranian arsenal. CNN reporting has at least half of the missile forces that were [4:50] believed to have existed before the war still in existence right now. One of the reasons for that [4:55] is the way that they can disperse these forces. They have them on mobile launchers, they have them [5:00] on trucks basically to go all over the place that are harder to detect, and plus they bury them [5:04] underground. So they have these hardened tunnels that are designed specifically to survive these [5:10] kinds of attacks. Iran has been preparing for this kind of a war for a very long time. And we're [5:16] seeing the results of that preparation. It doesn't mean that they're winning. But what it does mean [5:20] they have a capability to not only fight back, but they have a capability to down some of [5:26] our aircraft if we're not careful and the proper defenses aren't dispersed by the aircraft [5:32] itself. [5:33] F-15 does have the capability to disperse some defensive chaff, for example, which is [5:38] like aluminum foil coming out of the aircraft, but be that as it may, they can do a lot of [5:44] damage to aircraft like that, especially if it's a heat-seeking missile as opposed to [5:48] a radar missile. [5:49] Colonel Cedric Layden, I appreciate the expertise. [5:51] Thanks for joining us. [5:52] Thank you, Boris. [5:53] I want to bring in now retired U.S. Lieutenant General Mark Schwartz for more on this breaking [5:58] news as we continue to ask about the fate of that second crew member. [6:04] Thank you for being with us, and I do want to lean on your experience, given your command [6:09] of special forces. [6:11] What is happening right now in terms of trying to keep that crew member alive? [6:16] That crew member remains unaccounted for. [6:19] And can you just comment? [6:19] Can you kind of give us some insight on to how difficult this is? [6:23] And I do want to bring up again for viewers that image that CNN has that was released [6:29] by Iranian media of the damaged ejection seat. [6:33] CNN analysis does indicate that it is likely from that CF-15. [6:37] Paula, good to be with you. [6:41] So right now what's happening back at Central Command headquarters, probably a forward search [6:48] and rescue headquarters, where you saw that HC-1. [6:50] Yes. [6:51] DC PA and HM-130 and those Pueblo helicopters launched from. [6:55] They're continuing the planning process. [6:58] There's a high potential that they have communication with the other isolated crew member, whether [7:04] that's the weapons service officer or the systems officer, excuse me, or the pilot. [7:12] Darkness is the friend of the isolated person and frankly the friend of the U.S. forces [7:17] trying to recover this individual right now. [7:19] So planning is ongoing. [7:21] right now, if they do have communications with them, they're setting up, you know, an opportunity [7:26] to retrieve him and recover him back into U.S. custody, if you will. And if they don't have [7:34] communications with them, they're using every intelligence resource that they have available [7:40] to include, you know, satellite imagery, overhead, probably unmanned collection capability to assist [7:49] in locating him. And then lastly, what I would say is they've certainly started the very quick [7:55] debrief of the pilot or weapons systems officer that they have successfully recovered to, you know, [8:02] understand, hey, did you see two shoots, you know, when you were ejected and you have an idea in [8:08] proximity, you know, from a cardinal direction of where that other parachute landed relative to [8:14] where you were at. So all that information is being brought together to, again, facilitate [8:18] a successful recovery. Well, that certainly gives us some great insight. And against my [8:23] apparently zero knowledge of what happens, you actually say that nighttime, the fact that it's [8:28] nightfall now in Iran might be a good thing. I do want to ask you, and it is a difficult thing for [8:33] service members who have, you know, they're wondering about their family members right now. [8:37] There's survival training here, right? They are trained for being in enemy territory. [8:42] What does that involve? It is exceptional training. So every crew member, regardless of [8:50] military service and special operations forces, go through what's called SEER level C, which is the [8:56] highest level of training. And that's survival and evasion, the most important part of, you know, [9:01] where we're at right now with this isolated crew member. And then there's also resistance and [9:05] escape. So in the event you become captured by enemy forces, they teach you how, you know, to [9:10] deal with that captivity and also ways in which you can potentially escape captivity. But as part [9:20] of that training, in terms of how to properly communicate and then the actions that you should [9:24] be taking in the event, you know, you, in this case, you know, you had to eject and now you're in [9:30] enemy territory. Typically what they train you for is obviously find a place with good cover and [9:35] concealment initially. So move away from, you know, your parachute and, you know, the potential [9:41] site where, incident site where you came down and try to put as much distance between that and, you [9:47] know, where, where you're going to be able to successfully hold up until [9:50] there's time that you can establish communication. And ideally they can facilitate the recovery. [9:55] I do want to go back to CNN's reporting here though. And many of us wonder if they have air [10:00] superiority. This was a fighter jet. Our intelligence, our exclusive reporting tells us [10:06] that again, Iran retains significant capability. When you put all of that together, can you, you [10:13] know, let us in on what you think may have happened here in terms of how this jet was shot down? [10:19] Well, from the wreckage, [10:22] and I'm not saying that it's not, I'm not saying that it's not, I'm not saying that it's not, [10:22] I mean, I'm no wreckage expert, but it's hard to tell what brought the aircraft down. You know, [10:29] obviously when it hit, it, you know, broke up in many pieces, you know, it could have been a, [10:34] it could have been anything from a surface air missile fired by Iran, or it could have potentially [10:39] been, you know, some type of mechanical malfunction that caused the aircraft to go down. But remember, [10:45] air superiority does not mean that there is no threat. That just means that we have the ability [10:50] to predominantly [10:52] fly over at mitigated risk over enemy territory. But superiority does not mean that there is no [11:00] threat out there. And as has been reported, you know, Iran still retains both air defense [11:08] capabilities, certainly ballistic missile and drone capability. We see that playing out every [11:12] day since this conflict started. Okay, General, we'll leave it there for now. We'll continue to [11:18] touch base with you as we continue to follow this breaking story. Really appreciate your insights. [11:22] It's important to remember that during President Trump's primetime national address on Wednesday, [11:27] trying to sell his Iran strategy to a skeptical American public, he not only listened to the ways [11:32] he said Iran's war effort had been degraded, he called them beaten as well. [11:37] Tonight, Iran's Navy is gone. Their air force is in ruins. Their leaders, [11:45] most of them terrorist regime they led are now dead. Their command and control of the Islamic, [11:56] Revolutionary Guard Corps is being decimated as we speak. We've beaten and completely decimated [12:04] Iran. They are decimated, both militarily and economically and every other way. [12:10] I have an excellent group of reporters at the table with me, including Jasmine Wright, [12:14] who covers the White House for notice. The president has a penchant, shall we say, [12:19] of, to put it mildly, exaggerating from time to time. But now this is life and death. This is the [12:26] war. This is military. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. [12:27] This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. This is the war. [12:28] Is the president completely overstating the case about how bad it is for Iran now? [12:35] Well, I think that these things happen very often. [12:36] What are your sources telling you? [12:38] Hopefully, they'll find the second service member. But when I talk to folks after the president's [12:44] primetime speech on Wednesday, they told me, and these are people who are allied with the [12:48] president, they didn't say he did a good job. They didn't say they had a clear understanding. [12:52] They said the most important part of his speech is that he didn't say boots on the ground, [12:55] he didn't say Kargailan, he didn't think of Khomeini, he didn't say his feelings, he didn't [12:57] mention, yes, he mentioned an escalation when it came to airstrikes, but he didn't mention [13:01] crossing a red line in which a lot of people have for him. And so there is concern that perhaps the [13:07] president wasn't explicitly told how bad some of this could be. There is a concern that the U.S. [13:14] could stay in Iran for longer than that six-week threshold that the president told from folks I've [13:20] talked to outside and perhaps inside the administration. But fundamentally, they say that [13:25] this feels as though it is contained for now. But let's see how that, of course, evolves. [13:32] And we're seeing how much the American public is skeptical, downright opposed to this war. And [13:37] if we see more instances like this, I can only imagine how public opinion will be [13:42] shaped afterwards. This is what things currently stand, according to our new CNN poll that came [13:47] out just a couple of days ago. How Trump is handling the situation in Iran. Approved just [13:51] 33 percent approval of his hand, 67 percent disapproval. [13:56] And then, as Jasmine mentioned, the possibility of sending U.S. ground troops into Iran. If this [14:01] leads to that, we don't know if it will lead to that. Just 11 percent favor that. That is a [14:07] staggering, I mean, it's pretty clear where the American public stands on this. [14:11] Well, certainly nobody wants to see ground troops. You don't get to 68 percent unless you're getting [14:15] that across all parties, Democrats, Republicans. Yeah, and just to add to that, to your point, [14:18] Republicans, 23 percent, just 23 percent of Republicans favor sending in U.S. ground troops. [14:25] So, [14:26] obviously, ground troops will cross a sort of political line for Trump that'll be very [14:31] difficult for him to come back from. But, you know, the war can be unpopular. The country can, [14:37] as our poll shows, cannot have a clear path, do not believe that President Trump has a clear path [14:43] on how to get out of this. And yet, there can still be a lot of military success at damaging [14:49] Iran's capabilities. Now, our reporting here at CNN obviously shows that doesn't mean damaging [14:53] it 100 percent. They're obviously... [14:55] So, he's suggesting that. [14:56] But, clearly, that's not the case. Look at today's events. I mean, it is not the case, [15:01] nor is it the case in any war that I can think of where 100 percent completely annihilating any [15:08] possible threat or capability from the enemy. That's not reality. And we're seeing that play [15:13] out today that that's not reality. That doesn't diminish in any way the unbelievable military [15:18] success that Trump and Hegseth like to tout, and rightfully so. It just doesn't simplify, though, [15:23] the complicated nature. [15:25] That the U.S. is not the only one with a vote here on how this plays out. [15:31] Yeah, and why not... I mean, Trump is Trump. We know how he talks. But why not do what [15:37] sort of what David is suggesting here? Give a more nuanced picture to the American public [15:41] about how complicated this is. Yes, the American military operation so far has been successful [15:46] in this way, in this way, in this way. But we have enormous challenges on X, on Y, and [15:51] Z, and there are lots of challenges ahead. Level with the American public. [15:55] And tell American voters what to expect. Why can't he do that? [16:00] I mean, you answered the question. Trump is Trump. He's not a nuanced guy. He's never been a nuanced guy. [16:05] But would that help him with, you know, so many Americans opposed it? Probably because a lot of people just don't believe what he's saying, perhaps. [16:10] No, they're wildly skeptical, to say the least. And I go back to David's point. There can be enormous military [16:19] successes and still an incident like this. There have been thousands of sorties by American and Israeli pilots. [16:25] We only are aware of this one terrible incident, and hopefully the other pilots recovered. [16:30] But that doesn't mean that there is not an overwhelming military victory. And even if [16:35] there's an overwhelming military victory, you know, the war could still be unpopular. [16:40] The United States won all the battles in Vietnam and lost the war. I mean, you know, so this [16:45] is, this is, this is a very, very difficult situation. He went into this without building [16:51] up public support. It's not going to build up during the wars happening. [16:55] Right. [16:55] Not, not that they don't, they don't see it. Plus, the Pentagon is not really turning [17:00] over a lot of information. Everything they show is, you know, this PR effort they had [17:05] mounted of, you know, unbelievable successes and things blowing up. That's, that's not, [17:11] you know, you're not going to all start, start talking about, you know, nuance and, you know, [17:16] how difficult, how complex the situation is in the middle of that. This is not the administration [17:20] to do that. It's not the president. It's not the secretary of defense to do that. It's [17:24] just not the way these people are. [17:25] You know, especially when people are, you're getting hit with high gas prices, things are [17:30] going up. Then there's questions about the Strait of Hormuz, how Trump's messaging that. [17:34] The messaging keeps changing. It's a very confusing picture to the American public, [17:37] which is probably reflected in those very bad poll numbers for the president on the [17:42] war.