Day Trading LIVE — PPI Inflation Report

[00:00:00] Speaker ?: Thank you. [00:00:30] Speaker 1: What is going on guys? Good morning. [00:01:00] Rick Santelli: Welcome back to Squawk Box. Rick Santelli here live at CME HQ with the important breaking news this morning. The cousin, the CPI, the wholesale side producer price index for the month of June hitting the wires headline number minus three tenths of a percent. That is three tenths lower than the unchanged expectations in the rearview mirror. Significant revisions along the line. This one from one point one to down to point six. And why is that significant? Because one point one was basically a four year high. So we're coming off of that minus three tenths. That would be the biggest negative month over month change going all the way back to April of 2020. It's equal to where we were in April of last year at minus three tenths. Now, let's strip out the all important food and energy up two tenths, less than expectations. And rearview mirror, real big revision from point four up to only up one tenth. And it's significant because, of course, food and energy is going to be a volatile area here. But that's still less than expectations. Now, let's strip out food, energy and trade number expected up three tenths comes out up one tenth. No revisions that I see to that eight tenths in the rearview mirror. That was basically a four year high when it comes to how this one compares on X food, energy and trade. Well, up one tenth would be the least amount going back to April of last year when it was slightly negative. Now, let's go year over year, shall we? On final demand headline, number comes in at five point five. We're expecting a number over six percent. And last month, six and a half percent gets downgraded to six percent. So there's another big revision from what was a three and a half year high. And if we look at year over year, X food, X energy that comes in at four point seven. We're expecting a number over five. Don't see a revision of the four point nine rearview mirror, which was a three and a half year high. And finally, X food, energy and trade comes in at five point one. That's actually one of the closest numbers to expectations. We're looking for five point two. It equals last month at five point one. So we are continuing to be a little bit high on that benchmark. And I like X food, energy and trade. The five point one in the rearview mirror, that was basically the loftiest number in roughly three and a half years. So we're sticking around in that area at this point. Empire Manufacturing, we're expecting a July read to come in a positive nine. It comes in more aggressive at 15.6. That would be the best read going back to, wow, April of 22. That's how we excuse me. Excuse me. We do have a positive read that was in May. That was 19.6. That was the highest since April of 2022. Now, after all that, folks, what do we see? We see that we are hovering right around 460 in a 10 year prior to the numbers. We're at 458. Two year was at 420. Now it's at 417. The yield curve is steepened from the 24th of June's close at 24 basis points. Now it's at 41 basis points. The flattening was taking out the easing. The steepening, of course, is to some extent taking out some of the aggressive tightening. And the reason it's steepening is because two year yields are a little more aggressive on the give back than the tens. And as Peter Buchfarb has been telling us all at CNBC and the world what a great research artist he is, pay attention to real rates. They're on the rise. I still see some pressure, of course, in the long term and deficits do matter. But at least for the moment, sometimes logic gives way to market-driven aspects of fundamentals and technicals intersecting. I still see some potential for some downside. But I can't stress enough, any close above 467, especially on a weekly basis, or above 518 in a 30-year on a weekly basis, will significantly make the upside more aggressive. Joe and the gang, back to you. [00:05:22] Speaker 3: All right, Rick, thank you. Steve Leisman joins us now with more. Time moves pretty fast, as you know, Steve. So we had the MOU, oil came down already. The MOU's history and oil's back up. Was this just as cool a number as yesterday? Because people weren't really expecting that. And is it just one point in time now that we're back, you know, at $80 in kind of a kinetic war again? [00:05:55] Steve Leisman: Joe, I know it's a wishy-washy answer. But what if I said all of the things you said are true? That on the one hand, yesterday I held in abeyance my optimism on inflation until this number. And this number is a pretty darn optimistic number here. Final demand for goods falling 1.4%. Foods were down 0.6%. So that's a pretty interesting issue right there. Of course, energy leading the way, minus 6.4%. My friends who are truckers, we're thinking of you. And we see diesel down 18% in this number here. The core down 0.2. Trade was up 0.4. I don't really like that number. It's why I completely agree with Rick on the ex-food energy and trade number, the one to look at. But more importantly, when I look up the chain, I do this every time the PPI comes out, I look at the pressure beyond just at the producer level, look at intermediate goods. That is also doing well and not much pressure in there coming down the pike. I believe the intermediate number was down 1.2%. So that's something you want to be careful about and say, you know what, if that's happening, then there's not the pressure up the pipeline that's coming down. Another reason to be optimistic about this number is we know that the BLS is making some important technical changes to this index that will take effect in September about inflation when it comes to software and some other technical tech goods out there. And that's going to help it in September as well. So I think what we're seeing here is this concern about the Fed needing to hike in order to deal with inflation, maybe coming off the boil. And while I say that, I'm going to take a look at the probabilities, which were down just a second ago. Now they're down to 52. So it's still out there as an odds-on bet for September. We're down to 9% for July. So I think of these probabilities, Joe, as the next month, the coming meeting is a bet, and the next month after that is kind of a hedge. So it can be either way. It's 50-50 now on September. You're right. We may get a situation where some of this comes back into play because of oil and gas prices. But if it's not spreading to the core and not spreading to other areas, what you saw in the CPI yesterday and the PPI today, the Fed can be more relaxed about the inflation numbers. [00:08:26] Speaker 3: Rick, you're still here, Rick? Because something that people have pointed out to me, and I've kind of seen evidence of it. When it becomes less likely that the Fed is going to hike, doesn't it seem like long rates tick higher and the opposite is true? When it seems like they might be firm in their resolve to maybe hike, the long end seems to act better in terms of rates coming down. [00:08:59] Rick Santelli: Yeah, you know what, I think that you're accurate there, and I think the evidence of that is in the steepening yield curve. It really has been driven by a combination of stiffer long rates, which you've just pointed out, and a real abandonment of short rates, quick cycle up and now cycling down. But, of course, what's going on in the Mideast could change all of that. So I think there's part of that is the Mideast, but part of that also, and I'm taking Jamie Dimon's words here after that interview, you know, there's tectonic plates under the market for debt and deficits, the U.K. economy. [00:09:36] Speaker 1: All right, what is going on, guys? What is going on? So let's go over the PPI numbers. So CPI obviously is important for consumers, right? PPI is obviously important for producers. So it's basically the inflation on the producer side of things. And yesterday we got a CPI number that kind of surprised 0% month over month in a good way. Core CPI came in 2.6 versus 2.8. And then CPI month over month was minus 0.4%. Year over year was 3.5 versus 3.8. And the trend continues today with PPI coming in at 0.2% month over month core versus 0.3%. So if you strip out food and energy and then PPI month over month minus 0.3% versus 0% expected. So cooling inflation continuing once again. Now, obviously, what is this person saying? Did you catch the spike? No. Obviously, this is June's numbers, right? So this was when the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S. was signed. And the oil prices had dropped in June. If you look in June, right? This right here, this all happened in June. July 1st is right here. So we got an uptick from $67 in oil to $80 a barrel in light crude oil just in July. So this captures, the numbers capture all of this, right? So we are back to this kind of tit for tat skirmish between Iran and the U.S. And, you know, oil has ticked up and we'll see what happens. But obviously, if that continues and oil continues to push up, then all of these numbers, I think, will give back by the time July CPI and PPI are reported in August. So, well, it's yet to be seen here. I do think there might be a nice oil short today. And as I said, I'm still, as I said yesterday, I'm still bullish on the indices. And I say that lightly because, you know, obviously, if you look at SPY and QQQ, SPY broke out. QQQ is still knocking on the door of that trend line, could break out today. But it's not like I think we're going to do that. You know, I think we will make a new high for the S&P in July. I don't know that NASDAQ makes a new high because it is lagging far behind. It does look like things in Korea might have bottomed after the 25% decline. And this right here is the Korean, the South Korean ETF, EWI. But you could see how often it creates these rounding tops. Right. And it does fall into a bear market actually quite often because it's so dependent on a few memory names. So, yeah, things, things for now. I mean, I think it's it is cautiously bullish. Right. And if you look at BTC and this is something that I shared yesterday in my stock market write up in the discord. I did a my stock market write up yesterday, but saying that. There are pockets of optimism here that look like we could be on the verge of a short risk on rally. So if you look at Bitcoin, for instance, forming an inverse head and shoulders after sweeping 2026 lows, we are slammed up against the 50 day moving average. Right here. But we just popped above it. This has the chance to potentially get towards that 70 to $80,000 range on Bitcoin, which obviously as the asset that has been the most dead out of everything. If Bitcoin starts running, that would be. I think a very risk on sentiment. Obviously, I talked about the breakout in spy, the potential breakout in QQQ, the potential that Korea has bottomed as well. It looks like we are on the cusp of a plausible risk on rally for the rest of July. Obviously, things before midterm election will still be shaky, in my opinion. Love the fundraising, but with all this fraud in America, who knows how much of that money really helps the people it supports? It's supposed to? Okay. First low IQ comment of the day. I don't touch the money. The fundraising happens directly through St. Jude. So when you donate through YouTube, it goes directly to St. Jude. If you're saying you don't trust St. Jude, maybe it's because you're a moron. I have nothing to do with that. I'm just using my platform to facilitate an area where people can donate directly to St. Jude. That's it. I don't take that money and give it to St. Jude. I have nothing to do with it. And I match the donations from time to time. I try to do it once at the end of the year when I've compiled all the donations that you guys have given. And then we'll look to match that amount. But thank you for the low IQ comment. You can easily research St. Jude. You can even visit a St. Jude. If you never have, I recommend you do that. Funk101. Good morning, Surf. What's going on? Nijo AA. What is going on? Babin BC193. Good morning. Pulse Auto Market. Good morning. Emeraldo. Emeraldo 9. What's going on? Tristan92. MaxSpam. P4I or P4L. Regine. What's going on? Casey, what's going on? Paranoid. Good morning. [00:17:29] Speaker ?: Good morning. [00:17:43] Speaker 1: This guy thinks Z is Unicef. [00:17:45] Speaker 5: All right. All right. Colin. [00:18:08] Speaker 1: I appreciate your donation to the apparent scam that St. Jude's is. Apparently, those hospitals don't even exist. We can't even visit them. They're just building somewhere in rural Ohio with telephones in the middle of the room. Who knows? Who knows? Just asking questions. We don't even know if that's a real hospital. What is your expected drop in market in coming two months? I don't know what that means. 100% legit. Dude, I was being facetious. Corrective move and spy. What are you guys talking about? Right now. Right now. You high, bruh. No, I don't do that. Every time your mom offers me drugs, I tell her, look, drugs are bad. Look what it did to your kid. And I have enough evidence through you, through her. So I don't touch that stuff. I've been watching for weeks every day market open, but too scared, plus don't know how to start and open my account. Can you help? No, I cannot help. What are you? You want me to come over to your house and help you open an account? Okay. Come on, dude. You guys got to do the basics. Like I was a beginner. Everyone was a beginner, but you know what we did? We fucking searched relentlessly to figure this shit out. And if you're at the point where you don't know how to open an account and you need me to come over to your house and open it for you, this is probably not for you. And that's perfectly fine. Okay. Serrano, thank you, bro, for the $20 donation. Thank you, man. To St. Jude's. The higher that we go in pre-market, the worse it gets. Because as we went over yesterday, data highs and lows tend to get taken. And I think... Oh, there may be a short here, actually. I'm not bearish on the day, but obviously we're talking about retracements here. ETFs you recommend. For what? ETFs I recommend for what? PPI numbers, rewind it. The beauty of YouTube is you can stop asking me questions we already went over. And you can click the little slider and go all the way back. Is futures the most profitable form of day trading? I think all trading is extremely hard. And the reason that it has such a high failure rate is because people don't put in... Anyone can open an account and do some damage. There's nothing else in the world... Hold on. I'm trying to see if there's a potential short here. There's nothing else in the world where you can try to be a professional on day one. Nothing. Not sports. Not medicine. Nothing. But in day trading, you can open an account and try it. And so people open an account and they try things and either they lack the technical knowledge and for sure they lack the emotional wherewithal to be able to handle day trading because it's not something that we're built for naturally. It's something that goes counter to all human thinking and human emotion and human reaction and human survival. It's extremely counter natural. So you have the technical aspect of it, which is actually the easiest part. And then you have the overcoming of your nature, which is the part that takes years to really understand why you need a counterintuitive mindset and emotional state than the one that you came into this world with. So whether you're day trading futures or options or penny stocks, that part doesn't change. So if you look at ES here, we took out yesterday's high. Oh. Wait a minute. [00:25:24] Speaker 6: Wait a minute. [00:25:41] Speaker 1: The discrepancy is on the four hour. So we have a little bit of divergence on the four hour. And I really want one of the indices to take out 830 low. I think ES is too far to do it. But I think NQ can take out 830 low. Bitcoin finally looks like it's breaking out here. We might get a breakout in NVIDIA today. We did already have a breakout from this trend line, but this 211 level is so important. So what I would love to see with NVIDIA, I would love to see a swipe. Sorry. Hold on. I would love to see a swipe of pre-market low. That one might be on the deck today for a day trade. Netflix reports earnings tomorrow, I believe. Yeah. I'm very interested in this one. I'm not going to trade earnings on Netflix because it's a 50-50. I looked up the numbers already. Google holding this trend line really well. ASML reported earnings this morning, completely smashed it and continues to be one of the best trending stocks. If you look at this trend here off the 2148 EMA. So they beat both earnings and revenue and they raised guidance beyond what was expected. Hood with the nice bounce yesterday from the 9 EMA in this gap. I'm long hood shares for sure. And I think we can get to 120 this week. We took a long position on coin yesterday. Which has one of the more interesting charts. You can see here. This level on coin. That it has bounced off of five times. Since February 2024. And not only that. But. This inverse head and shoulders that it creates. All the time after bouncing off there. We have one now. But if this gets confirmed above the neckline. Then I think coin is on its way. To 200. And that's assuming that Bitcoin also. Breaks out here. How about Google brother? Why is it not 400 yet? Why is it not 400 yet? Did ASML release their earnings? Yeah. This morning. [00:30:18] Speaker ?: This morning. Are you playing TSM earnings? [00:30:49] Speaker 1: Are you playing? Are you playing TSM earnings? [00:30:57] Speaker 6: And now we got all the love and all the shit. We always want it all the time. And we don't have to worry. And we don't have to hold on. To pain we left behind. [00:31:35] Speaker 1: The option to market overestimated TSM stock earnings move 70% of the time. So most of the time, TSM does not beat the expected move. And the expected move right now is 5.2%. Let's look at the chart real quick. Oh, PayPal's up almost 20% because of the news that Stripe might acquire it. [00:32:13] Speaker 7: $60.50 a share all in cash to acquire it. This is reporting from Reuters that was dead on. It does seem perhaps that it was an organized leak in part to try to put pressure on a board of directors that will be meeting, I am told, as soon as July 20th. To discuss this, my understanding as well, according to people familiar with the situation, is that there have been talks or at least offers being made and talks that have resulted between this group and PayPal for some period of time. Many months ago, in fact, this sort of started and there was some reporting back some time ago from the likes of Bloomberg, I believe, about Stripe's interest in PayPal. This is an interesting potential deal that would not involve Stripe merging with PayPal. It would be part of this buying group with ADVENT. They would be putting up $17 billion in equity, is what people familiar with the proposed deal tell me. By the way, also including, don't want to make too much of this, but does include, I am told, as well, some participation in the equity side as well from Jack Dorsey's block. And so you would have this buying group that would then take PayPal private and then try to run it better, improve the Venmo service, for example. A lot of opportunities there. Our viewers can see, of course, the stock where it's been over some period of time. This is not even its 52-week high, let alone, of course, the highs this company saw a number of years back before things slowed dramatically. One reason why Stripe might not want to do it in terms of taking it in, well, there might be some regulatory, unclear, haven't really investigated that, but it's got a far higher top-line growth rate than does PayPal, and certainly that would slow it and perhaps upset. [00:34:10] Speaker 1: What do you think about Walmart? Pretty far away from where I live. The VST, this is just consolidating. Remember, we went over, in my last video, accumulation, expansion, distribution, accumulation, there's nothing here. I really like hood. Would you recommend a leap one month out? One, I don't recommend shit to you because that's your job, not mine. If you don't know how to take analysis and formulate your own trades, then you should be paper trading and then documenting those paper trades and see whether the moves that you're making actually have an edge to them. So, if you're asking now, if you should be in hood, I mean, hood has been making higher highs and higher lows. Obviously, a rounding bottom pattern broke major trend lines. If you're picking now to get into a leap when our entry price was in the low 70s and hood is currently trading at 115, you're probably chasing a move that you didn't recognize early on. And while I'm an advocate of not saying, oh, I missed the bottom, that means that I missed the move. This is a huge move to miss and to chase up here with options, in my opinion. Again, do what you like, document it, whether you paper trade it or actually take the trade. But my job is not to recommend you anything. My job is to make you understand or to try to get you to better understand market patterns, trends, risk management. Whether something is in a trend or not, whether something is tradable, etc. What you do with your own money and your own portfolio is up to you, not up to me. Do you still like TE? Bro, if you are, if you have a pure play that you are willing to hold for years, how are you going to ask someone a week later if they still like it? And it probably means that your framing is not well adjusted because you want things to happen immediately. There's a difference between a trade and an investment and a speculative investment. What do you think is the best buy in the dip this opportunity? I've been buying Oracle. Terrible buy. Not sure why you're buying Oracle. Thank you for that $10 tip, but this is not a chart that you buy. There is absolutely nothing to buy here. The thing that I think, one of the things that a lot of people don't understand is that stocks, strong stocks tend to go higher. If you look at the market like a bargain bin at a discount shop, you are going to get burned. The market is full of stocks that just keep going lower when you don't think they can. Oracle, in my opinion, is a terrible company. Because unlike the hyperscale, Oracle is 400% almost of debt compared to its equity. 400% debt to equity. And it hitched its entire wagon on OpenAI. And if OpenAI does not generate enough money to pay Oracle back, Oracle truly stands the chance of becoming insolvent. It's free cash flows are negative. It's spending more money than it ever has. But the difference between Oracle and Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta is that Oracle is actually drowning in debt. So if you compare this with the real hyperscalers, debt to equity on Google, 0.189. Compare that with 400%. Right? If you take a look at Microsoft, the balance sheet matters, bro. 0.3%. You look at Amazon, 0.4. Oracle is 3.7. So 370%. Don't get stuck in this, oh, it's cheap. I'm going to keep accumulating. It's, you, you have to recognize why you're buying and it can't just be, this thing is dropping. I'm going to pick up more. So, no, I don't think Oracle is the best buy the dip opportunity at all. This is actually a stock I wouldn't touch. Now, would I trade Oracle? Yes. When a trade presents itself, I would totally trade it. But am I buying Oracle and closing my eyes and betting that Sam Altman is going to be able to generate enough revenue to pay Oracle so that Oracle can pay off its debt? Not me. That's not my bet. I'm not hitching my wagon to that. It might happen. I'm not saying it won't or it will. I'm saying what is a good buy versus an extremely risky investment. And in my opinion, buying a company that has 400% debt to equity and saying, you know, I'm going to make money on this in 10, 20 years. Anthropic is already eating OpenAI's lunch. You know, Oracle hitched its wagon to OpenAI when OpenAI was the only game in town. Now, look at what Claude is doing. Look at what Gemini is doing. So, no, in my opinion, it's not the best buy the dip opportunity. The best buy the dip opportunity is the obvious one. It's usually way more obvious than you think, right? When cash generating machines are down 20, 30%, you buy them. That's the best buy the dip opportunity. I hope that helps. And I welcome your feedback. SK Hynix listed on three exchanges. Big mess because of the U.S. You're right. Yeah, you're right. About SK Hynix. But I don't think that that is. In the short term, we took a short on DRAM. So, I bought DRAM puts and I sold DRAM calls. And we closed those on Monday. So, we bought them on Friday. Closed those on Monday. Because of the anticipation of the sell the news effect. I wonder if we can make it down to data low here. One second. Ah, not as big as a range as yesterday. Okay. [00:43:44] Speaker ?: Okay. [00:43:44] Speaker 1: Okay. Let's see if we close here. I think NQ takes data low and ES doesn't. And then I think we get a long. 45 seconds until this closes. I typically don't like trading right before market open. Because even if you're right about direction, market open, the wicks at market open can definitely take out your stop. But sometimes if it sets up before market open, it's hard to say no to. And ES actually has equal lows at Asia. [00:45:05] Speaker 8: Hmm. Hmm. Hmm. [00:45:06] Speaker ?: Hmm. Hmm. [00:45:45] Speaker 1: 29, 6, 9, 50. I'm going to ladder into this position. I'm not. Yeah, so we have major divergence. On the 15 minute. I wonder if we'll get beyond 8.30 down here. 29, 8, 7, 5, 25. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:47:11] Speaker ?: I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:47:35] Speaker 6: I wonder if I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:47:39] Speaker ?: I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. 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I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:49:40] Speaker 1: I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:49:46] Speaker ?: I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:50:10] Speaker 1: I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:50:14] Speaker ?: I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:50:33] Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'm going to wait for... I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:51:08] Speaker ?: I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. We'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. [00:51:27] Speaker 1: I wonder if we'll get beyond 9.30 down here. Which is in 9 minutes. I'm going to wait to see where the manipulation is. Thank you for your answer. Oh, was that about Oracle? When a company IPO, stick to the six month rule? Yeah, but SK Hynix is not an IPO. So what you are saying is buy Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google. If you're just figuring that out now. What's Meta debt to equity? Plug that in Alphascope or in Google. McDonald's and Nike looks cheap. I think Nike is a terrible stock. Can you explain why you're looking at both ES and NQ side by side? Because they're related indices. And I want to see which one has relative strength and which one has relative weakness. That's a good question. I want to see which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and which one has relative strength and that we've got the same thing. So, SpaceX and SK Hynix are not the same thing. Trouble, man. SK Hynix is not an IPO. What do you think about AEHR stock? I don't think about it. Looking for divergence. Yeah. Another thing you look for is divergence. Exactly. MP. Thoughts. Thoughts and prayers. DCAed into Microsoft yesterday. Strong thesis. Need to see it hit and hold above 400. Am I way off? A little bit. [00:55:07] Speaker ?: A little bit. [00:55:07] Speaker 1: I think that you are confusing short-term price and long-term viability. If you buy Microsoft as an investment. Why do you need to see it above 400? That makes a little sense. That makes little sense. [00:55:38] Speaker ?: That makes little sense. That makes little sense. [00:55:38] Speaker 1: What does seeing it above 400 in the short term? [00:55:43] Speaker ?: I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. I think that's a little bit. [00:55:59] Speaker 1: What does seeing it above 400 in the short term? Have to do with your investment thesis. Market opens in four minutes. Did anything change with Duolingo? It's not a company that I would be interested in, so I think you're on the wrong channel. Where are you streaming the news? We already went over the PPI news. Click the slider and drag it to the left. SMCI is not like Oracle, dude. They're completely different companies. Yeah, NVIDIA needs to get above 211 in the short term if you're talking about the short-term movements because that right there is a very strong level for NVIDIA. So what is your outlook on SPCX? It's a buying SpaceX is a test of IQ. That's my outlook. I meant like debt issues, bro. Okay, dude. You can easily do this. You can easily do this. Does SMCI have debt, have a lot of debt. The internet is fucking free, guys. Does SMCI have a lot of debt? Yes. SMCI has accumulated a significant amount of debt. If I'm not answering your question because I'm busy answering every other question, use freaking Google, bro. Market opens in two minutes. Two minutes. One and a half minute. Want to see if we get a manipulation up there and then I will consider shorts. But I think, let me see something. I would much rather actually, I would really much rather have it do this. [00:59:21] Speaker ?: I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. [00:59:47] Speaker 1: I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. I would really like to see if we get a little bit of a deal. [00:59:52] Speaker ?: If we get a little bit of a deal, we'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. If we get a little bit of a deal, we'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. [01:00:19] Speaker 1: Holy candles. [01:00:24] Speaker ?: We'll be able to get a little bit of a deal. [01:00:30] Speaker 1: Okay. You see how ES manipulated up there. And NQ didn't. This is jumping around, dude. Let's see if it hits my my stop or not. It's it's a 30 point stop and it's like a three to one trade. So I'm willing to take this at the open. I think we might manipulate to the upside. Oh, twelve hundred thirteen hundred. I might scalp this here. Twelve hundred twelve fifty. All right. We'll live with that. ES is so strong for that. For whoever asked me, you know, why do you keep ES and NQ side by side because of this? Like on NQ, this trade looks fine. ES looks strong, but it's that to me was a manipulative move and we might come back down. Let's see. Let's see. All right. Scalped for a nice little twelve hundred dollar profit. I think the optimal move that I want to see. Is that but ES is kind of fucking things up here. Hilarious. So I decided to just scalp it. They're moving in opposite directions. NVIDIA, I think, looks like it's going to get going above that trend line. Which is a shame, because what I wanted to see from NVIDIA was the opposite of exactly this. I wanted to see NVIDIA do that and then that. [01:03:38] Speaker 5: Oh, shit. [01:03:44] Speaker 1: Our coin trade is nice and off the handle right now. I bought 50 of the con L calls yesterday. There's these are up thirty two percent. Let's go. In my opinion, I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. [01:04:54] Speaker ?: I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. [01:04:54] Speaker 1: I think this is just getting started. [01:04:57] Speaker ?: I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is getting started. I think this is getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. I think this is just getting started. Oh, where's my Jax? [01:05:23] Speaker 6: Oh, where's my Jax? Oh, where's my Jax? [01:05:45] Speaker ?: Oh, 165 is a major level. [01:06:03] Speaker 1: Oh, 165 is a major level. for this week. Yeah, this 165 is going to be stubborn, but if we get above that, 172.5 is right there. [01:07:15] Speaker ?: We'll be right back. [01:07:45] Speaker 1: That new Kanye, Stay Stuck in My Head. Bro, they did the refresh of some of the songs and then released the deluxe version. Man, that album fucking slaps. Are you still in NVIDIA Leaves? Yeah. Why would I not be in NVIDIA Leaves? I love how you guys ask me about things that are long-term. Like, am I still in them? And you'll ask me this from day to day as if I'm just going to what? [01:08:26] Speaker 8: Be like, oh my God, time to get out. I know I bought these for at least six months out, but I don't know how to sit on my hand. So maybe I should just close them. [01:08:44] Speaker 1: Ah, my trade played out fully, huh? My trade played out fully and immediately. Told you guys data low is going to get taken. Who can call price better than this? What is he typing? That's between me and your mom. I don't know if I can tell you that. Why did you short NQ instead of ES? Because I like violence, my friend. Yeah, NQ is weaker. And also, NQ was much closer to 830 low. So I figured that that would be the one that is most likely to take it. T-Black, appreciate your donation to St. Jude's, man. Thank you. Damn, perfect trade would have played out. Oh, why did I get out for a scalp? I had two contracts, too. But I'm glad y'all made money. [01:11:18] Speaker 8: I'm glad y'all made money. [01:11:20] Speaker 1: For swings, aside from technical analysis, is there any other information or data you consider? Yes. What is the overall market in? Is it in consolidation? Is it in a trend? How closely related is my stock to the overall market? I look at options data. Is there a significant amount of gamma that can help my position one way or another? I also look at whether the stock in and of itself is trending. Is the sector that it's in trending. So like, for instance, data centers right now, I don't think that that's something that you want to swing. Is Z always like this during live trade? What does like this mean? What's a good call to get in right now? I really wouldn't look at the market that way. And I think you're going to get hurt if you're just looking at random things to jump into. So I wouldn't look at the market as like a lottery. I think that you should be looking more for how it is to find and spot trade entries. As opposed to what calls can I buy now. And yes, I do think there is a long potentially on the indices soon. Wish I learned how to read Jex a long time ago following the money game changer. I, I, yeah, 100%. How can I, how can I find about, about finding swing trade entries? Um, you should start with technical analysis. So I have a free video on YouTube. technical analysis for beginners. So you can start there. Obviously I'm not the end all be all and you can learn from other resources too. but at this stage, I don't think that you should be, um, paying anyone or buying anything. I think you can learn the basics. If you're still, uh, a super beginner, I think you can learn the basics for free. And I actually think that, um, um, there is a certain minimum level that someone should be at before. They join trading groups, whether mine or anybody else's, um, I think trying to like, if you, if you don't even know yet how to pull up a chart and do the basics, I think you have a lot of work to do before paying someone for a trading community, in my opinion. And while we do have quite a few beginners in the group, um, if you're at that level, at that beginner level, in my opinion, there's a lot of studying that you should be doing for free before trying to join a group. And obviously it doesn't benefit me to say that, but I will always be honest with you. And I think you can study for hours, days on end before getting to the point. Oh my God, this is no, before getting to the point where you can follow, um, the analysis that's given in a group. Uh, I blew a ton of money on honey drip. What is honey drip? I've never heard of this. TSC. Don't know what that is either. I assume these are services and I didn't know what the F I was doing. I still don't, but back then was chasing the wind every direction instead of, yeah, you're going, you, you, you are, you have to shift your focus from give me a play. I want to, I want to make money. What calls should I buy? What stock should I buy? You're never going to make money like that because you don't understand risk management. You don't understand when to cut a trade. You don't understand how to size. You don't understand how to manage your emotions and someone can throw all the proper tickers at you. If you don't have that other stuff dialed down, you are going to lose money. It's inevitable. It's not like knowing the lottery numbers ahead of time and then, you know, putting that into your lottery ticket and then winning the lottery. Honey drip is the Aristotle guy. He is bad. [01:18:24] Speaker ?: Oof. [01:18:47] Speaker 1: NQ is nasty. Not really. I mean, if you rewind the stream, I told you that level is going to get taken on NQ. It just depends on how it gets taken. That right there is just PPI low. What was your career before you became a full-time trader? Uh, I was in tech. So, first in finance, then jump to tech for the money, to be honest. And then quit that altogether. I think we get to these equal lows on ES. [01:19:59] Speaker 6: And then I'm going to jump through some tickers. [01:20:18] Speaker 1: And then I'm going to jump through some tickers. What are your thoughts on what? Oh. He deleted his account. Oh. [01:20:43] Speaker ?: He deleted his account. [01:21:09] Speaker 1: My levels are just off. I mean, data low is an obvious level. And then, I'm going to jump through some tickers, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, but then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:21:38] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker, and then I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:22:08] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:22:38] Speaker 1: I think NQ takes that low, at least. [01:23:08] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:23:38] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:25:08] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:25:38] Speaker 1: I wonder if we get rejected at 930. [01:26:08] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:26:38] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:27:37] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:28:37] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:29:07] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:30:37] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:31:07] Speaker 1: I can go through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:32:07] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:32:37] Speaker 5: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:33:07] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:34:07] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:34:37] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:35:37] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:36:07] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:36:37] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:38:07] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:39:07] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:41:37] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:42:07] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:42:37] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:44:07] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:44:37] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:46:37] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:47:07] Speaker 9: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:48:07] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:49:07] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:50:37] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:53:36] Speaker 11: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:54:36] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:56:06] Speaker 11: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:57:06] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [01:59:06] Speaker 9: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:00:06] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:00:36] Speaker 9: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:02:36] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:08:06] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:09:06] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:11:06] Speaker 12: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:12:06] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to move through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:14:36] Speaker 12: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:15:06] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:16:06] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:16:36] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:18:35] Speaker 13: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:19:05] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:19:35] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:23:35] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:24:35] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:27:35] Speaker 5: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:28:05] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:30:05] Speaker 12: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:30:35] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:31:05] Speaker 14: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:32:35] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:33:05] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:35:05] Speaker 14: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:35:35] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:36:05] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:36:35] Speaker 15: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:37:05] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:37:35] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:41:05] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:41:35] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:42:34] Speaker 16: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:43:34] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:46:34] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:47:04] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:48:34] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:49:04] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:49:34] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:50:34] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:51:04] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:52:34] Speaker 17: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:55:04] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:56:04] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:57:04] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:57:34] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:58:04] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:58:34] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:59:04] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [02:59:34] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:00:34] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:01:04] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:01:34] Speaker 1: I'm looking super, I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:04:04] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:04:34] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:06:04] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:08:33] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:09:03] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:10:03] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:11:03] Speaker 18: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:12:03] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:13:03] Speaker 18: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I agree with Senator Hagerty. [03:14:03] Speaker 19: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:15:03] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:15:33] Speaker 19: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:16:03] Speaker 10: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:17:03] Speaker 19: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:18:33] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:20:03] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:21:03] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:22:03] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:23:33] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:24:03] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:28:03] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:29:03] Speaker 6: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:29:33] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:31:03] Speaker ?: I'm going to jump through some ticker. [03:31:33] Speaker 1: I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker. I'm going to jump through some ticker.